Pre-tourney Rankings
South Florida
Big East
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#55
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#57
Pace55.2#342
Improvement+6.9#3

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#173
Improvement-3.2#309

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#13
Improvement+10.1#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.5% n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four19.6% n/a n/a
First Round12.9% n/a n/a
Second Round4.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2011 139   Vermont W 61-59 81%     1 - 0 +0.8 +8.7 -7.2
  Nov 14, 2011 258   Marist W 81-67 94%     2 - 0 +4.9 +8.1 -2.6
  Nov 19, 2011 107   Old Dominion L 66-68 OT 65%     2 - 1 +2.2 -1.7 +4.0
  Nov 20, 2011 128   Penn St. L 49-53 70%     2 - 2 -1.4 -12.6 +10.4
  Nov 23, 2011 237   Georgia Southern W 66-46 92%     3 - 2 +12.1 +6.1 +10.9
  Nov 26, 2011 208   Florida Atlantic W 68-55 90%     4 - 2 +7.2 +2.0 +7.0
  Nov 30, 2011 52   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 46-69 36%     4 - 3 -11.3 -10.3 -5.9
  Dec 03, 2011 5   @ Kansas L 42-70 11%     4 - 4 -6.2 -17.2 +9.1
  Dec 11, 2011 318   Florida A&M W 83-59 97%     5 - 4 +8.7 +8.4 +1.8
  Dec 14, 2011 140   @ Auburn L 40-52 60%     5 - 5 -6.4 -19.2 +10.6
  Dec 19, 2011 88   Cleveland St. W 70-55 72%     6 - 5 +17.1 +9.7 +9.6
  Dec 22, 2011 69   @ Southern Miss L 51-53 41%     6 - 6 +8.4 -13.3 +21.5
  Dec 28, 2011 36   Connecticut L 57-60 54%     6 - 7 0 - 1 +4.0 -1.1 +4.5
  Jan 01, 2012 117   Rutgers W 67-65 78%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +2.1 +3.5 -1.1
  Jan 05, 2012 83   @ Villanova W 74-57 45%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +26.3 +14.4 +14.1
  Jan 10, 2012 40   @ Notre Dame L 49-60 31%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +2.3 -7.6 +7.8
  Jan 13, 2012 44   Seton Hall W 56-55 60%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +6.4 -2.1 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2012 146   St. John's W 64-49 83%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +13.1 +7.6 +9.6
  Jan 22, 2012 156   @ DePaul W 75-59 64%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +20.4 +5.9 +15.5
  Jan 24, 2012 18   @ Marquette L 47-67 20%     11 - 9 5 - 3 -3.0 -14.6 +10.3
  Jan 29, 2012 121   Providence W 81-78 78%     12 - 9 6 - 3 +2.8 +13.7 -10.6
  Feb 04, 2012 17   @ Georgetown L 45-75 20%     12 - 10 6 - 4 -13.0 -15.5 +0.8
  Feb 08, 2012 68   Pittsburgh W 63-51 66%     13 - 10 7 - 4 +15.7 -4.8 +21.7
  Feb 11, 2012 121   @ Providence W 55-48 56%     14 - 10 8 - 4 +13.6 -7.5 +22.4
  Feb 15, 2012 83   Villanova W 65-51 70%     15 - 10 9 - 4 +16.5 -0.6 +18.6
  Feb 19, 2012 68   @ Pittsburgh W 56-47 41%     16 - 10 10 - 4 +19.5 +0.3 +21.6
  Feb 22, 2012 7   @ Syracuse L 48-56 12%     16 - 11 10 - 5 +12.6 -8.5 +20.1
  Feb 26, 2012 33   Cincinnati W 46-45 53%     17 - 11 11 - 5 +8.3 -7.0 +15.7
  Feb 29, 2012 19   @ Louisville W 58-51 21%     18 - 11 12 - 5 +23.5 +3.0 +21.1
  Mar 03, 2012 37   West Virginia L 44-50 54%     18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.0 -16.5 +16.1
  Mar 07, 2012 83   Villanova W 56-47 58%     19 - 12 +14.9 -6.2 +22.6
  Mar 08, 2012 40   Notre Dame L 53-57 OT 43%     19 - 13 +5.9 -7.6 +12.9
Projected Record 19.0 - 13.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 22.5% 22.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.4 8.2 0.5 77.5 22.5%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 0.0% 22.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.4 8.2 0.5 77.5 22.5%